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Inför UFN 18 - Huvudkortet

Carlos Condit vs Martin Kampmann

Condit äntrar den stora scenen från sin tid som mästare i WEC. I sin svit på 8 raka vinster har han 5 submissions och det är något av hans stora talang, även om han också är en duktig thaiboxare med lång räckvidd. Dock har Kampmann aldrig blivit utdragen och han har visat att han kan konkurrera i mellanvikten. Innan förlusten mot Marquardt hade han 8 raka vinster och den allsidige dansken vill nog gärna få ihop en bra svit igen. Han slår hårt och är riktigt teknisk stående, dessutom är han bättre på marken än vad många tror.

Därför tror jag att det blir svårt för Condit att dra ut dansken på marken och att han trots sin längd kommer bli straffad stående. I sina vinster har han ofta stått för tempot och kunna dra fördel av motståndarens misstag när de är pressade, men det är något som inte Kampmann kommer tillåta. Condit har dessutom pressen på sig att visa att mästaren från WEC kan leverera i UFC. Han har absolut tillräckliga kvalitéer, men det känns som att Kampmann är ett för svårt test i debuten.

Ryan Bader vs Carmelo Marrero

Bader vann senaste TUF utan att riktigt visa mer än att han kan brottas, här hoppas nog alla fansen på att han visar att han är komplett. Men mot Marrero blir det ingen lätt match, han tävlade tidigare i tungvikten där han bland annat gick 3 matcher i UFC för ett par år sedan. Där blev det först en överraskande vinst mot Cheick Kongo, innan han fick smaka på förluster mot Gabriel Gonzaga och Wilson Gouveia. Nu är han tillbaka med en svit på 4 raka vinster i bland annat IFL och WEC.

Marrero har precis som Bader en bakgrund i brottning och har precis som Bader inte direkt utvecklat sitt stående game. Därför ger jag ändå segern till Bader tack vare att han nog är den bättre brottaren, men med tanke på Marreros erfarenhet kan man aldrig räkna bort honom.

Tyson Griffin vs Rafael dos Anjos

Griffin är tillbaka efter förlusten mot Sherk och den här gången står han som favorit. Brassen Dos Anjos fick en otrevlig debut mot Jeremy Stephens där han blev totalt utslagen och lär få det svårt även här. Griffin är nämligen världsklass på att just stänga ner alla BJJ-fighters han möter, han har bland annat besegrat Gleison Tibau och Thiago Tavares. Han gör det inte särskilt underhållande alltid, men med sin brottning och fysik brukar han undvika att bli nertagen och hålla det stående om han behöver. Om inte Dos Anjos har specialtränat takedowns känns det som att det blir ett solklart domslut för Griffin.

Junie Browning vs Cole Miller

Browning fick en snäll debut i UFC, han kunde relativt enkelt besegra övermatchade Dave Kaplan. Men nu är det onekligen en helt annan nivå. Miller är decimetern längre och har vunnit 3 av sina 4 matcher och har dessutom gått tiotalet fler matcher än Browning. Om Miller tar matchen till marken och jobbar på sina submissions kommer han att dra ut Browning förr eller senare. Dock är han knappast imponerande stående och kan ibland också blotta sig när han söker takedowns. Detta lär Browning inte var sen att utnyttja. Jag ser framför mig hur Brownig öppnar aggressivt men att Miller ändå med sin erfarenhet klarar den första stormen och sen kan dra guard och avsluta.

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